Subj: Significant Trends of 2002

The year 2002 has seen interesting, encouraging and horrifying situations, fluctuations and trends relating to religious liberty. I believe our commission for 2003 is to stay alert (1 Peter 5:8,9), sensitive to the Spirit, and obedient – one day at a time.

Unless there is a need for an urgent release, this will be the final posting on the RLC E-mail Conference for 2002. Postings will resume after the New Year. I wish everyone a wonderful and joyous Christmas season. I recommend to you the WEA RLPrayer posting – RLP 200: Christmas 2002 Special: http://www.evangelicalalliance.org.au/rlc/postings

– EK

SIGNIFICANT TRENDS AND SITUATIONS OF 2002 THAT SHOULD IMPACT 2003.

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** TREND ** – A continuing struggle in Communist Asia between increasing openness and maintaining control. ——————————————————————–

CHINA leads the way in this struggle and has the potential to be a strategic positive influence on its neighbours. There is a long way to go, as the case of Hong Kong’s Article 23, the persecution of the South China Church and Pastor Gong Shengliang, and the re-arrest of pastor Peter Xu all demonstrate. Yet we are not without hope.

A leading Chinese evangelical recently said to me that he believed the Chinese leadership was realising that it could not win its battle against the Church and was gradually giving up and accepting that it has to learn how to live with it. A South China Morning Post article entitled “Reform of religious policy is on the agenda,” by Nailene Chou Wiest in Beijing, 17 December 2002, confirms this.

“The government is considering enacting a law on religion to end years of confusion caused by conflicting administrative orders. With a national law on religion, the courts, not the local religious bureau or the public security office, would be the arbiter in the event of a dispute.

“The call to reform China’s religious policy has been gathering momentum since the National Work Conference on Religious Affairs at the end of last year. President Jiang Zemin said that religion was likely to outlast the state and the party and urged participants to find ways to ‘make socialism and religion adapt to each other’.”

Most significantly, the U.S. State Department has reported that one outcome of the recent China / US human rights dialogue is that China has agreed to invite United Nations experts on torture and religious freedom, and a representative from a UN working group on arbitrary detention, to visit the country.

The BBC reported that “US assistant secretary of state for democracy, human rights and labour Lorne Craner said China’s decision to allow the experts to visit proved that China’s communist government is serious about trying to improve its human rights record. ‘You usually don’t invite those people unless you’re serious about addressing the issues they will raise,’ he told the Associated Press news agency.” (See link 1)

On Sunday 15 December, thousands (organisers report up to 50,000) marched peacefully in Hong Kong to protest the proposed anti-subversion legislation – Article 23. “I have never seen so many Christians crusading against the government before,” a church activist said (to the South China Morning Post). “It has shown how evil we consider Article 23 to be.”

The protest march began in Victoria Park with a prayer session organised by more than 70 Christian groups. The constitution requires Hong Kong to pass the law, which Beijing is eager to see introduced in order to keep what it calls hostile forces from using the territory to subvert the mainland. (CNN, Reuters, see link 2). The process of this bill will be watched closely in 2003.

NORTH KOREA continued to fluctuate wildly, however, 2002 saw massive changes induced by total desperation. One wonders how much longer the regime of Kim Jong-il can maintain its consistent, relentless, appalling cruelty and repression. When dealing with the outside world though, Kim Jong-il is less consistent and his unpredictability is his most predictable quality.

VIETNAM is one Communist Asian nation where the situation has markedly deteriorated. The Hmong tribe, located in Vietnam, Laos, China and Cambodia, is under intense persecution. This will be a major issue in 2003.

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** TREND ** – rising nationalism linked to religious identity is bringing increased levels of persecution to religious minorities, especially evangelicals. Political parties and religious majority leaders prepared to play this dangerous game can increase their power and influence at the expense of social harmony. Nationalism linked to religious identity and built on a platform of fear has become the political tool of the modern era. —————————————————————-

ORTHODOX – the Orthodox Church is linked to the nationalism in Belarus and Russia. Can President Lukashenko maintain his oppressive dictatorship in the face of international pressure through 2003? What happens in these strategic nations sets a precedent for other states in Central and Eastern Europe with large Orthodox populations, such as Ukraine, Bulgaria, Moldova and Romania etc.

HINDUTVA – in contrast to the predictions of many political analysts, Hindutva is alive and well in India, fed on a revived and winning diet of fear by politicians who are experts at this game. See Link 3 for details of the December win by the BJP in Gujarat. The results of Hindutva are communal violence, anti-conversion legislation and rising levels of police and government oppression.

BUDDHIST – Buddhist nationalism complete with anti-Christian violence has been on the rise in Sri Lanka for some time. It appears that the situation is set to deteriorate further as anti-conversion legislation (Tamil Nadu style) is being considered and is supported by the leaders of all non-growing faiths (i.e. everyone except the evangelicals).

Cambodia has seen it’s first sign of Buddhist nationalism. With seven months to go before elections in Cambodia, the battle is on to win the support of Cambodia’s influential Buddhist monks. Also, the Cambodian Independent Teachers’ Association (CITA) is protesting the mentioning of “God” in school textbooks, on the grounds that the Constitution declares Cambodia to be a Buddhist nation and therefore the mentioning of “God” is alleged to be a direct contradiction of the Constitution. Mr Rong Chhun, the head of the CITA, said any reference to God was a direct reference to Christianity and not Buddhism and “is a medicine that is poisoning students and will lead to social unrest”. (See link 4)

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** TREND ** – the “War on Terror” has poured fuel on the flames of Islamic renewal across the Muslim world and exaggerated the polarisation between the Islamic and non-Islamic communities. Polarisation has also increased between hardline and moderate Islam with many moderates being drawn into the hardline, radical, purist camp. ——————————————————————–

For decades the Islamic renewal movement has advocated a departure from secularisation and modernisation and a return to “pure” Islam along Qur’anic lines. This movement increased in momentum through the 1990s. However, when the “War on Terror” commenced (interpreted by many in the Muslim world as a war on Islam) the Islamic renewal movement took on the status of a unifying, anti-crusader / anti-West protest movement.

The trend towards increased Islamisation and polarisation is seen in the election results from Muslim nations that have had elections since 7 Oct 2001. Bangladesh, Bahrain, Malaysian state elections, Pakistan — all have seen a profound shift in favour towards radical Islamist, pro-shari’a parties. Only in Morocco, while the Islamists increased their representation, did they fail to seize power or influence.

This rise in Islamic zeal and identity, together with the rise in Islamic militancy, backed by the Islamic renewal movement and a bottomless pit of oil money, is set to create serious challenges for religious liberty and for the Church, especially and immediately in the needy and vulnerable regions of Africa.

COTE D’IVOIRE is, in a very generalised sense, representative of Africa as a whole. The future of Cote d’Ivoire could be prescriptive of the future of much of central and sub-Saharan Africa.

The Ghanaian Post reported on 16 December on the rebel walkout from the peace-talks. ECOWAS Co-ordinator, President Eyadema insisted that, “the search for a political settlement should involve, exclusively, the Ivorian major political parties.” (MPCI is a rebel militia without a political wing.)

It was suggested that if the rebels wanted to be given a political voice then they should form or transform the MPCI into a political party. Rebel leader Guillaume Soro said, “That was the last straw that broke the camels back.” This is in spite of the fact that virtually all the rebel’s requests had been agreed to (see link 5). The ECOWAS mediation team was convinced that they had satisfied all the rebels’ demands except the resignation of President Gbagbo, which was not considered to be a reasonable request. As Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade acknowledged, “The legitimacy of President (Laurent) Gbagbo, who was democratically elected, cannot be called into doubt.”

NIGERIA has elections due in or before April 2003. Religion is threatening to be a major and divisive election issue.

SUDAN straddles a fence between yielding to Islamist pressure Islamise the nation by force (acknowledging that through its new oil wealth it has the weapons to do so) or to appease the “anti-terror” West (where many prospective oil markets are located) and work towards a peaceful settlement for Southern Sudan. Talks resume in January 2003 and peace is closer than it has ever been.

INDONESIA also straddles a fence between appeasing the hardliner Islamists whose influence is considerable and growing, or protecting minorities, dispensing justice and appeasing the West in regard to dealing with terrorism. Indonesia’s ability to confront issues of terrorism, jihad and justice will determine the direction Indonesia goes in 2003. It will not be an easy road either way.

IRAN is one Islamic nation where reform is definitely on the agenda. It will be a most interesting nation to watch in 2003.

MOROCCO, under the leadership of King Mohammed VI, is leading the Arab world in terms of democratic reform and freedom. This will be another interesting nation to watch. King Mohammed VI (38), who married on 12 July 2002 (his wife is a computer engineer), is keen to advance media freedoms, education and tolerance. In his Throne Day speech of 31 July 2002 he said, “Each one of us has to realize what he should do in the future so that freedom, pluralism and diversity, which distinguish our social project, be factors of development and modernity in our country’s political life, making of this year a new start for a global upgrading in Morocco, politically, economically, socially and culturally.”

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** FUTURE ** – if there is an attack on IRAQ in 2003, it will doubtless lead to “retaliatory” attacks against Christians, particularly Christian minorities in Muslims nations.

MIDDLE EAST – the conflict and the situation for Palestinians is a major obstacle to good relationships between Christianity and the Arab nations. Much “goodwill” work is needed.

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– Elizabeth Kendal

Links

1) BBC “China ‘invites UN human rights experts'” 18 Dec 2002 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/low/world/asia-pacific/2585699.stm

2) CNN, Reuters “Thousands Protest Hong Kong law.” 15 Dec 2002 http://asia.cnn.com/2002/WORLD/asiapcf/east/12/15/hk.protest.reut/in dex.html

3) Reuters “India’s Ruling BJP Wins Gujarat Election” 15 Dec 2002 By Myra MacDonald and Thomas Kutty Abraham http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A56932-2002Dec15

4) The Straits Times “Cambodia teachers want ‘God’ taken out of textbooks”, 18 Nov 2002 http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/asia/story/0,4386,155531,00.html

5) “Ivorian Crisis – Disappointment at Lome Peace Talks” By Ebow Godwin, Ghanaian Chronicle (Accra) 16 Dec 2002 http://allafrica.com/stories/200212170171.html

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