Subj: Nigeria: interim election report.

The 12 April legislative elections in Nigeria have been deemed free and fair, even if they were chaotic. The chaos however, is being used as an excuse to reject the results. Tension is escalating and the presidential polls are still ahead.

NIGERIA’S 12 APRIL LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS

Nigeria’s 12 April legislative elections passed in relative peace by Nigerian standards. Violence was isolated with only a handful of deaths, primarily in the conflict-prone oil-rich delta region.

The Commonwealth Observer Group has been in Nigeria since early March 2003. They have released an “Interim Report” (Link 1).

The Commonwealth Observer Group says (excerpts from the report), “It is to the credit of Nigeria that they have not only invited international observers but that they have allowed them freedom of access to observe the whole process.

“Many individuals and organisations worked very hard to make the National Assembly Elections a success and many polling and counting stations worked very well. People at all levels in INEC (Independent National Electoral Commission), the political parties, the Nigerian observer groups, the police and the media, and most of all the polling station staff, deserve to be praised. In particular, I want to commend the Presiding Officers for their professionalism and diligence, the political parties for their generally responsible conduct, and civil society which, with five times as many observers this time as in 1999 — has made a particularly important contribution to the transparency of the process.”

The Commonwealth Observer Group did however criticise some logistical problems such as very late opening of some polling stations, long, slow queues, poor lighting, and lack of privacy. It recommended that these issues be addressed before the Saturday 19 April presidential poll.

Likewise a team of twenty foreign observers sponsored by the International Republican Institute (IRI) commended the legislative polls as “free and fair” but recommended that the “logistics and administration of voting procedures” be improved before the 19 April presidential polls. (Link 2)

This seemed to be the general consensus amongst election observers.

LOOKING AHEAD TO 19 APRIL

In an article entitled, “Nigeria prays for peaceful elections”, Sunday 13 April 2003, Joseph Winter, BBC News Online correspondent in Port Harcourt, Nigeria, comments on the legislative election’s logistical problems, saying, “Saturday’s elections were certainly chaotic, but it remains unclear whether this was organised chaos to provide a cover for electoral malpractice, or just inefficiency. But even if there was no deliberate ploy to subvert the people’s will, it seems likely that some politicians will try to take advantage of any opportunity they come across to try to turn things in their favour.

“Looking forward to next Saturday’s elections, there are two scenarios.

“Maybe the National Assembly elections were a sort of practice session that next week’s election officials will reflect on, iron out the many problems and ensure everything runs smoothly next time.

“Or anger over this election, possibly heightened when the results are announced and the fact that the stakes will be much higher next time, means serious trouble could be in store.

“Those in church will be praying hard that Nigeria has a peaceful Easter weekend.” (Link 3)

RESULTS – TENSION – THREATS

As election results have trickled out, the tension in Nigeria has escalated and the BBC’s second scenario of anger and trouble looks more likely. By Wednesday 16 April it was clear that Olusegun Obasanjo’s Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) was on course to win a clear majority of seats in both the parliament and the senate in the legislative election.

Presidential contender and head of the main opposition All Nigeria People’s Party (ANPP) Muhammadu Buhari has rejected the results, accusing the PDP of massive rigging and fraud. “I will not accept defeat, I will not accept defeat (in legislative) elections.” (Buhari, BBC 16 April).

Buhari has made an official statement. “‘It must be remembered that those who refused to learn from history will sooner or later become history themselves,’ said Buhari’s statement, which was headed: ‘A coup against democracy’.” (Link 4)

The history Buhari may be referring to could be that of Alhaji Shehu Shagari, who was elected president in 1979 and re-elected as president in Nigeria’s last civilian-run polls in 1983, polls that were condemned widely as irregular and fraudulent. Shagari was only back in power for four months before Major-General Buhari, who had accused Shagari of systematic corruption, toppled him in a coup and seized power. In light of this history, there is concern that Buhari’s words constitute a threat.

19 APRIL – PRESIDENT POLL

Religion will certainly play a major part in the 19 April presidential poll. It is already clear from the legislative polls and opinion polls, that predominantly Muslim northern Nigeria favours Buhari while the south favours Obasanjo, with much of central Nigeria being too close to call.

It is most probable however, that Muhammadu Buhari’s pro-sharia Islamic rhetoric will backfire against him. Nigeria’s population is split virtually 50 / 50 between Christians and Muslims. Buhari’s pro-sharia stance and his urging of Muslims to vote for a Muslim will have certainly alienated Nigeria’s Christians. We can also be fairly certain that many Muslims will not vote for a pro-sharia president.

– Elizabeth Kendal

LINKS

1) Commonwealth Observer Group Interim Statement 16 April 2003 http://allafrica.com/stories/200304160763.html

2) Observers Say Election Free, Fair This Day (Lagos)14 April 2003 http://allafrica.com/stories/200304140135.html

3) Nigeria prays for peaceful elections Sunday, 13 April 2003, by Joseph Winter BBC News Online correspondent in Port Harcourt, Nigeria http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/low/africa/2944255.stm

4) “Nigerian poll on the brink as opposition rejects results” AFP 16 April 2003 http://sg.news.yahoo.com/030415/1/3a3p7.html

Also see http://www.thisdayonline.com/ for daily updates of polls and results in pictorial form and in articles.

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