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********** RELIGION TO DETERMINE NIGERIA’S NEXT PRESIDENT Christian-Muslim Rivalry Likely to Influence Outcome of Easter Elections by Obed Minchakpu

Summary: JOS, Nigeria, April 16 (Compass) — Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation, will hold elections on Easter weekend to elect a new president — or perhaps to re-elect the present one, depending on how religious divisions in the nation of 130 million affect the outcome. Twenty candidates have joined the presidential race scheduled for April 19, vying for the office with incumbent Olusegun Obasanjo. Also at stake are 109 senatorial seats and 360 seats in the House of Representatives. Nigeria has lived under a democratic civilian regime for only the past four years and is still making the political transition from more than three decades of military dictatorship. About 60 million voters have registered for the elections, which essentially run from April 12 to May 4. For millions of Nigerians, religion will play a prominent role in their choice of leaders. Muslim-Christian rivalry is so intense that none of the 30 political parties in the country has managed to develop a truly national support base. Muslims consider Obasanjo’s ruling Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) as a Christian party. The All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) of his nearest rival, Muhammadu Buhari, is considered by Christians to be a Muslim party.

Full Story: JOS, Nigeria, April 16 (Compass) — Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation, will hold elections on Easter weekend to elect a new president — or perhaps to re-elect the present one, depending on how religious divisions in the nation of 130 million affect the outcome.

Twenty candidates have joined the presidential race scheduled for April 19, vying for the office with incumbent Olusegun Obasanjo. Also at stake are 109 senatorial seats and 360 seats in the House of Representatives.

Nigeria has lived under a democratic civilian regime for only the past four years and is still making the political transition from more than three decades of military dictatorship. About 60 million voters have registered for the elections, which essentially run from April 12 to May 4.

For some political analysts, massive attendance at campaign rallies leading up to the elections indicates that Nigerians are tired of corrupt leadership and desire a change. “The turnout has been very heavy here and I want to congratulate the Nigerian people for embracing democracy,” said Dr. Abel Goubadia, chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

The Catholic Church in Nigeria, concerned that the elections be truly democratic, has deployed 30,000 people across the country to monitor fairness at the polls. Already, the monitors have filed reports of fraud and intimidation at local polls. Rev. Iheanyi Enwewrem told Compass that, in some parts on the country, they have recorded cases of political assassination and theft of electoral materials.

For millions of Nigerians, religion will play a prominent role in their choice of leaders. Over the years, religion has become a divisive tool in the hands of the political class. Muslim-Christian rivalry is so intense that none of the 30 political parties in the country has managed to develop a truly national support base. Muslims consider Obasanjo’s ruling Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) as a Christian party. The All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) of his nearest rival, Muhammadu Buhari, is considered by Christians to be a Muslim party.

Unscrupulous politicians have learned to manipulate Nigeria’s religious and ethnic diversity to win at the polls. Such exploitation has sparked inter-religious violence. In the past fours years of democracy, an estimated half million people have died and billions of dollars worth of property has been destroyed as a result of religious strife.

The implementation of sharia (Islamic law) in 12 northern states has exacerbated the political tensions. The central government’s inaction in confronting proponents of Islamic law has contributed to the deepening rift between Muslims and Christians. Analysts believe that, if the government had acted promptly to resolve the sharia issue when it first arose, it could have salvaged the human and material resources lost to the religious conflict and avoided the religious polarization evident today.

Analysts expect the presidential election to hinge on the religious dimension, with the predominantly Muslim north voting for Buhari and the Christian and animist southerners supporting Obasanjo. As a result, the decisive vote to produce the country’s next resident will occur in the central states, where Christians slightly outnumber Muslims. The implication is that, despite the current low performance rating of his administration, Obasanjo may be re-elected

Meanwhile, Nigeria’s economic fortunes have continued to dwindle. Recent reports show that over 70 million Nigerians still live in abject poverty, despite the country’s abundant oil wealth. The United Nations Development Program has been ranked Nigeria among the 10 poorest nations in the world. Transparency International, a non-governmental organization set up in 1993 to fight global corruption, has ranked Nigeria as one of the most corrupt countries. Observers believe that, when religion ceases to be a determinant factor in the politics of Nigeria, the country will forge ahead with social and economic development.

END ********** Copyright 2003 Compass Direct

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