2004 ELECTIONS

INDONESIA

25 March 2004

As Indonesians go to the polls this April many Christians worry that parties which are pro-shari’a (Islamic law) will gain positions of power.

Democracy is still a recent concept for Indonesia. Free elections in 1999, after the fall of President Suharto, were the first in 44 years. This year the electorate will vote to fill 16,000 seats in national, provincial and district legislatures on 5 April. The first ever presidential election will be held on 5 July, where only parties which have won at least 3% of the April vote will be able to field candidates. In the likely scenario that no candidate gains over 50% of the July votes, a final poll on 20 September will decide between the two most popular candidates.

Most observers believe Megawati Sukarnoputri will retain the presidency in this year’s election. But in the legislatures, competition for seats will be stiff. Sukarnoputri’s Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and Suharto’s old party, Golkar, are the two main rivals. If Golkar poll the most number of votes, they may well form a governing majority in coalition with small radical Islamist parties. Golkar would have little compunction forming such an alliance as the party has a strong Muslim influence. On the other hand the PDI-P is secular, and as such has tended to attract the bulk of the Christian vote. Nevertheless it is not impossible that the PDI-P will also try to court Islamist parties, if it means that they can form a governing majority. This will give Islamist parties with a relatively minor support base a disproportionately large influence over policy in the next government.

CONSERVATIVE ISLAMIST PARTIES PUSH FOR SHARI’A

The outspoken Indonesian magazine Tempo has said that a key element of post-Suharto politics is the rapidity with which Islam has emerged onto the political stage. The Islamist United Development Party (PPP) is already the third largest party and, along with the Crescent Star Party (PBB), it has made calls in the Indonesian parliament for the introduction of shari’a (Islamic law). Vice President Hamzah Haz is leader of the PPP and is outspoken in his support of shari’a. Politicians with an Islamic agenda have seen success with the passing of the Education Act http://www.barnabasfund.org/News/Archive/Indonesia/Indonesia-20030715.htm and are currently seeking to introduce a Religious Tolerance Bill which would restrict church building and conversions from one faith to another. At a regional level shari’a has already been introduced in Aceh Province and the authorities in Makassar, South Sulawesi are considering following suit. Likewise the local government in West Sumatra has considered requests for such action from the PPP. Sunday 29 February saw marches across the country in favour of a nationwide introduction of shari’a as the parties started their political campaigns.

RADICAL ISLAMIST PARTIES GAIN SUPPORT

The voting tendencies of Indonesians have interestingly remained almost unchanged since before the rise of Suharto, with even the PPP and PBB drawing on established support for conservative Islamist parties. However the major change has been with the populist radical vote. In the 1955 elections this saw expression with the support of socialist trade union movements. In the 1999 elections there seemed to be little focus for such voters, after Suharto had emasculated the unions. In 2004 it seems increasingly clear that radical Islam is filling this political vacuum. In the wake of the Bali bombing, Muslim militants have scaled down their overtly military tactics and many have shifted their activities to campaigning in the political sphere. Even the vicious Islamic militant groups Jemaah Islamiyah and Laskar Jihad are winning increasing support; the latter has reportedly withdrawn from conflict zones to Java and Sumatra in order to launch a campaign to persuade voters to support radical Islamist parties. It is possible such movements will coalesce and take on Megawati directly to oust her from power and form a government which will introduce shari’a. Extremists gaining positions of power should surely be of concern to the electorate, but a recent survey ranked terrorism last among issues that worried Indonesians. None of the political parties are making it an issue, for fear of being branded anti-Islamic. Less than 1% of 2,540 people polled considered it important.

PRAY

*Pray that elections will pass off peacefully, particularly during the campaigning period this month.

*Pray that Islamist parties will not be voted to positions of power.

*Pray that shari’a will not be introduced elsewhere in Indonesia, which would be very detrimental to non-Muslims.

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