July 29

By Alan Matheson

The Vic Govt  is doing  a “Sentencing Survey” through the pages of the tabloid press (Herald Sun).

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/have-your-say-on-justice-and-sentencing/story-fn7x8me2-1226102413896

The Govt is ignorant,or confused or devious and manipulative.

This kind of ‘self selected survey’ has no credibility or scientific validity:   it’s  a travesty, and a nasty piece of political populism.

A letter from Vic Council of churches, stated that   the “increased emphasis on imprisonment as a punishment, and on longer sentences, are NOT the best or most effective ways to reduce crime.”

It’s  the kind of   survey professionals call “SLOPS – Self selected listener opinion polls”, or in this case, “SROPS – Self selected readers opinion polls” ie. non random, not representative,distorted and partial.

* The Chair of Victoria’s Sentencing Advisory Council, describes the Herald Sun survey, as “scientifically flawed and would fuel people’s fears and misconceptions”

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/sentencing-expert-criticises-governments-flawed-crime-poll-20110604-1fmgm.html

* Polling experts warn that it “will produce highly skewed results”

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/lawyers-slam-sentencing-survey-20110531-1fepv.html

* “It was a publicity stunt, in which case it would be a waste of money, or the government has already determined the outcome and was relying on biased results to make a case”.

http://newsstore.fairfax.com.au/apps/viewDocument.ac;jsessionid=47130C3D226D46780FCDA059AF4B0E92?sy=afr&pb=all_ffx&dt=selectRange&dr=1month&so=relevance&sf=text&sf=headline&rc=10&rm=200&sp=brs&cls=1452&clsPage=1&docID=AGE110601AR3KK7M5PO2

* Australian Lawyers for Human Rights calls such polls, “the least reliable indicator of public opinion”

http://www.lawyersweekly.com.au/blogs/top_stories/archive/2011/06/01/alhr-hits-back-at-online-sentencing-plan.aspx

The Law Institute said, “the online survey was an extraordinary move…. made even more extraordinary if the survey can be completed more than once”!

http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/sentencing-poll-can-be-slanted-say-opponents-20110728-1i2bm.html

In short, while their inaccuracy is blindingly obvious, and they “litter misinformation and confusion” throughout the community, Herald Sun readers will  love it, and the Govt will go into the next election with more people in prison, having “listened to the people”!

*  The ‘survey’ is  inaccurate because it’s not a sample which has any validity

* It’s biased because it will be answered by readers of the Herald Sun (see below)

* The Govt sets out in the introduction what it is already going to do (eg. end home detention, set statutory minimum sentences etc).

* It’s replicating already existing Australian Research Council surveys, based on scientific sampling etc

http://www.sentencingcouncil.vic.gov.au/news/2011-07-25/purposes-sentencing-and-predictors-punitiveness

NB. One of the findings of this latter study (ARC), was that, “punitiveness is also higher among people whose main source of information is commercial/tabloid media, people with no tertiary education and people who describe themselves as politically conservative”. The Herald Sun carried out ‘surveys’ of sentencing in 1996 (“40,000 most wanted longer sentences”) and 2004 (“sentencing is a joke”).

NB.

**  “Death rates among prisoners within a year after their release are 10 times higher than among inmates who remain inside – with 1/3 of deaths occurring in the first 4 weeks of freedom”

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/prison-release-a-deadly-sentence/story-e6frg6nf-1226096395588

** “About 54% of women and 47% of men in prison are reported as having been assessed or treated for a mental problem”.

http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/modern-prescription-for-mental-illness-go-directly-to-jail-20110728-1i20q.html